Statistical Study
Statistical Study
Introduction:
Every study requires statistical tests that give us the relevance of a hypothesis stated or a theory, the statistics can only be done through the use of data and using statistical hypothesis testing methods then we can validate the significance of a theory or a hypothesis.
In the case of identity theft we will consider the theories of crime to help us formulate a hypothesis that will be tested using available data, this data can be collected using interviews with victims of these crimes or even questionnaires, other sources include books and journals. This paper discusses the theories on crime and also shows the independent and the dependent variables that will aid in formulating our model and then test the statistical significance of our theory.
Theories on crime and its prevention:
Identity theft has increased in our societies in the recent past, there has been increased opportunities regarding these crimes, this paper discusses the possible solutions to these problems and how these crimes can be prevented. Some of the supporting theories include the control theory of crime, the situational theory and the rational choice theory. All these theories give a guideline on how these crimes can be stopped. Data on identity crime is available in various data bases and also to test our hypothesis whether indeed the consideration of certain factors there will be decline in the occurrence of these crimes.
Control theory by Travis Hirsch:
Travis Hirsch in his theory of control regarding crime stated that there exist control mechanisms that can help reduce the rate of crimes; he identified direct control mechanisms, indirect control mechanism, need satisfaction control and the internal control mechanism.
Direct control entails the use of formal threats such as punishments to offenders of these crimes; offenders will not involve themselves in crimes if there is the existence of harsh punishment associated with these crimes. Indirect control according to Travis Hirsch is attained as a result of influence from the superego of the offenders, people will gain control against making offences due to their inner control developed.
Internal control will result from the people who influence a person behavior, these include friends and parents and the nature of the relationship will determine whether a person commits a crime or does not. Finally need satisfaction control results from the result of fulfilling an individuals needs, when the needs of an individual are met then they will be less likely to commit crimes.
Situational theory by Clarke and Hough:
this theory depicts a possible ways by which crime can be prevented through making crimes more difficult, one way to achieve this is through educating the individuals on crimes, crimes will be reduced if the individuals know that there is a high possibility of crime occurrences on certain occasion and if the strategies set by offenders is well known to the individuals it will be less likely for these crimes to occur.
Rational choice theory by Clarke:
This theory by Clarke depict that crimes will be deterred by the certainty of the occurrence of punishment and fines and not the severity of the punishment, by this Clarke means that the existence of harsh punishments will not deter crimes but it is the certainty that punishments will occur that makes crimes to be reduced by the punishments.
Therefore from the theories given crime will be reduced by the following factors:
Giving information about the opportunistic crimes
Harsh and the certainty of punishments
The dependent and independent variables
In our research on crimes we will have use the variables that include the occurrence of the crime, and we will consider control measures which include information about the crime and the existence of harsh crimes in the system that deter crime.
Our dependent variable therefore will be the occurrence of these crimes, this will be given by the data available, and this variable will be a measure of the frequency of these crimes.
The independent variables will include the control measures and at the same time the availability of information regarding these crimes, the independent variables will be those factors that influence these crimes. Our model will take the following form:
Y = α + b X1 + b X2 + u
Where Y is the crime rate, α is the autonomous value of these crime, X1 will be the existence of control measures, X2 will be the existence of information regarding these crimes and finally the u is the error term.
The reason why we choose these variables is due to the available literature and how they depict how this crime can be stopped, one way in which these crimes can be stopped is the existence of a control measure