If The Future’s So Bright How Come I Don’t Need Shades?
If The Future’s So Bright How Come I Don’t Need Shades?
If the Future’s So Bright, How Come I Don’t Need Shades?
Or… Of Bubbles and Crystal Balls
July 2009 – With a 2010 update
(author’s note: Hello. The original article was imbedded with reference links to support the point of view I am expressing. Articles Base treats such links as “self-serving” for some reason, and I was required to remove them. The version of the article with links intact is posted on my website)
If the title of this piece rings familiar, it is a take off on the name of that old Timbuck3 hit from the early days of MTV, “The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades”. When I first recalled this song I mistakenly remembered that the reference was to sunglasses rather than shades. But no, that was “I Wear Sunglasses at Night”, by Corey Hart. Or perhaps I was thinking of ZZ Top’s, “Cheap Sunglasses”. But a quick online check confirmed that the Timbuck3 lyrics talk of the need for shades to protect ones eyes from the very bright future described in the song. Oh, my failing memory.
Interestingly, and fundamental to the point this essay attempts to articulate, is that the perception by most who heard that Timbuk3 song was that its message was positive and uplifting. A casual listening to the chorus could easily lead one to assume the song was pointing to happy days:
♫ …
I study nuclear science
I love my classes
I got a crazy teacher
He wears dark glasses
Things are going great, and they’re only gettin better
I’m doing all right… getting good grades
The future’s so bright… I gotta wear shades,
I gotta wear shades
… ♫
But that’s an incorrect impression. The tune in fact, as explained in this Wiki article, portrayed a future gone terribly wrong when an overly-greedy society triggers a nuclear holocaust whose explosive flash blinds all those who fail to shield their eyes.
No, we are not going to the horrible place suggested by the true meaning of that hit. However the song exemplifies how a catchy chorus and an upbeat melody can create misperception.
Hmmm. Memory. Perception. We rely heavily on those two facilities. Yet as we all know… memories are short, and perception is subjective. With regard to the present state of our economy, the perception by many, if not a few more than many, is that we can expect things to get better sooner rather than later. This point of view is reflected for example in polls, in a survey of economists last May, and in a sharp decrease on Google for the search term economic depression. The perception of better times ahead is also being reflected in the stock market, which in fact is gettin’ much better grades lately. You can see where I’m going with this. With all the exuberance and elation associated with the recovery of the stock market –and by inference, the economy– it may be wise to insure we’re not wearing our rose colored glasses before breaking out the booze and reaching for the lampshades. Because if we take a moment to recall a little economic history of this fine country, our perception of the actual state of affairs may turn out to be decidedly different then the upbeat portrait touted by those with vested interests.
Point being, rumors of the economy’s rebound have been greatly exaggerated. And that’s the thrust of this article. I wish to argue that we are not now, nor will we soon be, in a recovery. This point will be made simply by demonstrating that we are not actually in a recession. Rather, we are in a depression. I present this thesis on the basis that information is power, and that being forewarned allows for one to become forearmed. And if you happen to become convinced of the point of view expressed here, do not despair… there may well be a happy ending. But first I should note that I am not an economist, just a simple investor (although I did stay at a Motel 6 last night). Therefore you may wish to refresh your recollection of the story of the Blind Men and the Elephant before reading further.
Yep…We Seem To Be In a Depression.
Depressions, by definition, take longer to play out than the amount of time spent so far in our current ‘recession’. That’s the basic difference between a recession and a depression: Time. Depressions run longer and deeper than recessions. So in a way, we need to look a bit forward in time to prove that we are in a depression now. Not an easy thing to do, the future being all full of vagaries and what not. It’s hard to know exactly how the economic bombshells of the past few years are going to shake out. How do we peer around the corner with any certainty? Do we employ a psychic and a crystal ball? Probably not. Several well know psychics predicated Hillary would win the last presidential race. Hmm. Should we believe they will have better luck with economics than with politics?